联储仍未对紧缩松口

　　激石Pepperstone(http://www.paraat.net/)报道：

　　假期阅读了美联储理事Waller和Cook的演讲稿，很遗憾，依然没有看到对于政策紧缩松口的措辞。

　　Waller的观点很重要，因为他是美联储内部坚持认定美国经济将实现“软着陆”的理事，此前更是断言“衰退论”已经被证伪。目前笔者覆盖每一次Waller的公开表态和演讲——观察他的态度转变实际上也就大致可以捕捉到美国经济的微妙变化。简言之，如果Waller哪天口风变了，那说明他心中的软着陆可能实现不了。

　　Cook的观点亦很重要，因为她是刚刚被拜登提名的新理事，也是史上第一位进入联储理事会的非裔美国女性。最近她在PIIE的表态是她作为联储理事的首次公开亮相。最近有许多小伙伴问起美联储是否会在临近中期选举时受到来自MZ党的“政治压力”，我们看看Lisa Cook的表态就可以一探究竟。

　　Waller的看法

　　话不多说，直接上原文解析。

　　This is not the inflation outcome I am looking for to support a slower pace of rate hikes or a lower terminal policy rate than projected in the September 2022 SEP. And, though there are additional data to come, in my view, we haven't yet made meaningful progress on inflation and until that progress is both meaningful and persistent, I support continued rate increases, along with ongoing reductions in the Fed's balance sheet, to help restrain aggregate demand. As far as achieving our dual mandate, this is a one-sided battle. We currently do not face a tradeoff between our employment objective and our inflation objective, so monetary policy can and must be used aggressively to bring down inflation.

　　很直接的表达了目前的通胀数据不足以放缓加息的速度，也不足以下调终端利率——目前抗击通胀未取得实质性进展。最关键的是，Waller提到联储目前的双重使命实质是单边战——抗击通胀是至高目标。并且通胀目标和就业目标目前根本不存在取舍问题(9月非农依然强劲)，所以货币政策必须保持激进加息来遏制通胀。

　　As I mentioned earlier, rent growth has been very high recently. The housing services component of the PCE price index rose a bit above 0.7 percent in August, which was slightly above the previous three-month average. And I expect a similar pace to continue for a while, well into next year. Why? Shelter inflation measures the rents actually paid by households. Only a fraction of households sign a new lease in a given month or renew their lease each month. So, when monthly shelter inflation is calculated, it includes a large share of homes under lease where rents did not change. As a result, changes in market conditions show up in the inflation statistics only over a period of several months. In addition, the inflation statistics use a six-month average when calculating rent growth. Asking rents and rents on new lease contracts—which do reflect contemporaneous rental market conditions—have been rising at a fast pace for more than a year. These increases have fueled shelter inflation so far this year, and they should continue to do so for at least the next six months. That said, there is a glimmer of hope in the most recent readings of asking rents, where the rate of increase has stepped down a bit. This slower pace should eventually contribute to a slowdown in shelter inflation, although that might not be seen until later next year.

　　这一段，Waller提到了房租市场的通胀压力，目前美国的高通胀压力来源中，核心通胀的房租价格贡献较高，大家都在寄望于房租通胀回落。可Waller预计房租压力会持续到明年，因为租金增速的计算是以六个月的平均值为准的，且很多租约的价格是固定的。换言之，来自房租的核心通胀压力会持续至明年。

　　I don't think that this extent of data is likely to be sufficient to significantly alter my view of the economy, and I expect most policymakers will feel the same way. I imagine we will have a very thoughtful discussion about the pace of tightening at our next meeting.

　　如果你想要观察联储对加息幅度的考量，毫无疑问应该关注11月的议息会议，而在11月初以前的数据都不足以实质性改变Waller(和联储官员)对经济的看法。

　　In considering what might happen to alter my expectations about the path of policy, I've read some speculation recently that financial stability concerns could possibly lead the FOMC to slow rate increases or halt them earlier than expected. Let me be clear that this is not something I'm considering or believe to be a very likely development.

　　另外，最近有很多声音提到“金融稳定风险”会使得联储提早放缓或终止加息，但Waller斩钉截铁地否认了。

　　Cook的观点

　　我们再来看看Cook的首次亮相，很多措辞可以说是极端鹰派了……

　　In the current situation, with risks to inflation forecasts skewed to the upside, I believe policy judgments must be based on whether and when we see inflation actually falling in the data, rather than just in forecasts. Although most forecasts see considerable progress on inflation in coming years, it is important to consider whether inflation dynamics may have changed in a persistent way, making our forecasts even more uncertain.

　　这里Cook传达的信号是联储目前的施政并不基于“数据预测”而是“实际数据”——预期通胀下降不足以让联储转向，联储必须看到通胀实质性的回落。且给通胀测顶没太大意义，因为“需要考虑通胀动态已经实质性地改变了”，所以“我们的预测具有很大的不确定性”。

　　In our current economy, with a very strong labor market and inflation far above our goal, I believe a risk-management approach requires a strong focus on taming inflation. Inflation poses both a near- and long-term threat. Aside from the immediate effect of higher prices on households and businesses, the longer it persists and the more people come to expect it, the greater the risks of elevated inflation becoming entrenched. I think it is critical that we prevent an inflationary psychology from taking hold. This is not simply an abstract concept, but a risk I take seriously based on personal experience. My time doing dissertation research in Russia in the mid-1990s taught me just how disruptive and painful an extremely high-inflation environment can be.

　　市场非常热衷于拿联储的“risk-management”一词做文章，认为提及“风险管理”就意味着联储开始思考经济下行的风险——这是无稽之谈。目前的风险管理仍然针对的是抗击通胀，以防通胀变得积重难返。此处Cook提及笔者非常重视的一点，即通胀的伤害可不是“抽象的概念”。很多经济学者在谈论通胀时仅仅把其视为联储的通胀目标和一个可以玩弄的数字，完全没有将它视为底层收入群体实际面对的生活成本提高的痛楚，是脱离实际的。